With Calipari leaving Kentucky for Arkansas, the Wildcats will make a strong move to hire Nate Oats .. and Nate will say thanks, but no thanks to the Big Blue Nation.

Big Blue Nation, you cannot have Nate Oats. The Alabama basketball coach, who recently led the team to the Final Four, will stay in Tuscaloosa. There hasn’t been time for an official reaction from Oats or Alabama, so Nate’s stay is only speculation for the time being.

Given that Oats and Alabama recently signed a contract extension, Oats is now one of the highest-paid coaches in college basketball. The new agreement stipulates that if Oats leaves for another program, a $18 million buyout must be paid.

That is a high buyout for a basketball coach, even one on the side like Nate Oats. It has been reported that Bruce Pearl’s and Danny Hurley’s buyouts are around $7M and the buyout for Baylor’s Scott Drew is less than $5M.

A guess is Kentucky would gladly pay the $18M buyout to get Oats. They had been contemplating shelling out $30M-plus to get rid of John Calipari. The Kentucky program would probably even be willing to make Oats college basketball’s highest-paid coach.

There are reasons to believe that if Oats gets a Kentucky offer, his decision will not be driven by money. One reason is Alabama AD, Greg Byrne is astute. No school will outsmart Byrne. It is inconceivable that before Oats and Byrne inked the recent deal, Byrne did not ask what it would take to lock Oats down. It is equally inconceivable that Oats’ satisfactory answer to Byrne is one he would renege on. Nate Oats is not that kind of person. In recent days, Oats talked about Byrne glowingly, calling him a friend and the college world’s best AD.

There’s another reason Oats should be afraid of Kentucky. The Wildcats have a history of dismissing top coaches. John Calipari isn’t the first. The same thing happened to Eddie Sutton and Tubby Smith.

One counterargument to the allegation that Oats will turn down Kentucky is that he may be even more successful in Lexington, given the city’s attraction to elite talent. But Nate Oats can win championships at Alabama, and he may do so shortly with Kentucky.

Oats’ decision must involve consideration of what is best for his family, both monetarily and otherwise. Nobody should make the assumption that any decision would be easy. The Kentucky program can entice with a monetary offer almost impossible to refuse.

Another intuition is that go-betweens have been exchanging information for at least a few days. They did not begin at 10 p.m. Sunday with the Calipari announcement. Kristen Saban tweeted late Saturday night, “If you thought Oats was leaving, you’re silly.” Kristen is not involved in any negotiations, but Nate Oats has so much regard for Nick that they most certainly spoke. The case is not comparable, but Texas employed a ‘Brinks truck’ strategy with Saban more than once. Money alone was insufficient for Nick, and hopefully will not be for Nate.