Just In: Stats Prediction points to Bills’ veteran QB regression in one area.

Not even Hall-of-Fame running back Thurman Thomas came that close to matching OJ Simpson’s single-season Buffalo Bills record 16 touchdown rushes.

Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen scored 15 touchdowns on the ground in 2023, threatening Simpson’s franchise mark while setting the NFL single-season record for TD rushes by a non-running back

Even as reliable of a rusher that Allen is, the TD total is viewed as a bit of an aberration. In fact, Sports Illustrated fantasy football expert Michael Fabiano predicts that the Bills’ QB1 will not be able to repeat that feat in 2024.

Identifying potential statistical regressions across the fantasy landscape, Fabiano tabbed Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns as a 2023 stat that won’t be reproduced this season. The analysis also suggests that Los Angeles Rams’ receiver Puka Nacua will experience a drop off from his 1,575-yard rookie receiving total and Miami Dolphins’ running back Raheem Mostert will score than the league-leading 21 touchdowns he tallied one year ago.

Josh Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns
Allen and Jalen Hurts both rushed for 15 scores a season ago, which is the most by a quarterback in league history. What’s more, there’s only been six quarterbacks to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in a single season in the Super Bowl era. That list includes Allen, Hurts (2), Cam Newton (2), Kyler Murray, Kordell Stewart and Daunte Culpepper. Allen had never rushed for more than nine touchdowns in a single season before this past season, so I expect that 15-score total to decline.

For his career, Allen has 53 rushing touchdowns over 94 regular season appearances. The 28-year-old Allen broke the Bills’ franchise career record for TD rushes by a QB (initially set by the late Jack Kemp — 40) and currently ranks second all-time in NFL history behind Cam Newton (75).